Bated Breath
GBP: The British Pound remains under pressure as downside momentum dominates, though it has shown resilience against several peers following stronger retail sales, upbeat PMI data and a record budget surplus. These signals point to underlying economic stability. However, political uncertainty surrounding the Gorton and Denton by-election is limiting upside potential. Focus now turns to Governor Andrew Bailey’s testimony, which could inject fresh volatility into sterling.
EUR: The Euro traded in a narrow range, supported by an unexpected improvement in Germany’s IFO business climate index, signalling tentative stabilisation in the region’s largest economy after prolonged weakness. However, gains were capped by renewed uncertainty over potential US tariffs, which cloud the outlook for export-reliant sectors. With limited fresh Eurozone data, the single currency may lack clear direction in the near term.
USD: The US Dollar softened amid mounting uncertainty over US trade policy. After the US Supreme Court struck down Donald Trump’s IEEPA tariff regime, Trump imposed new 10% and then 15% global tariffs, creating confusion over their scope and potential importer refunds. Investors remain cautious, though downside pressure is limited by geopolitical risks, including possible US military action against Iran.
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